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  1. Library
  2. /
  3. Phillips Curve
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  5. Scenario

Macro Foundations · intermediate

Inflation expectations de-anchor

What moves on the Phillips Curve diagram

  • SRPCshifts right (small)

Expected inflationinflationA sustained rise in the overall price level, eroding money's purchasing power. enters wage- and price-setting directly, shifting the SRPC up one-for-one.

Watch it animateQuiz yourself on Phillips Curve

Step by step

  1. 1

    Start with expectationsexpectationsBeliefs about the future that shape behavior today, the hinge variable of modern macroeconomics. anchored.

  2. 2

    Workers and firms start EXPECTING higher inflationinflationA sustained rise in the overall price level, eroding money's purchasing power., the entire short-run tradeoff shifts up.

  3. 3

    Same unemployment, more inflationinflationA sustained rise in the overall price level, eroding money's purchasing power.: the menu got worse without any realrealAdjusted for inflation, measured in actual purchasing power. shock. This is why central banks obsess over anchoring.

Where this shows up

Examiners ask this as: expectations rise phillips, srpc shifts up, de-anchored.

Other scenarios on Phillips Curve

Labor market reform cuts the NAIRU →Oil shock drags the whole tradeoff upward →Central bank credibility pulls expectations down →Better job matching lowers the natural rate →Long-term unemployment scars the workforce →Wage-price spiral un-anchors expectations →